Indicators

29 scored indicators across 7 sub-scores. Click any indicator to see its full history and methodology note.

Big Ticket 4 indicators

30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rate (PMMS)
MORTGAGE30US
47
weekly Weakening
Commercial Bank New Auto Loan Rate — 72-Month
RIFLPBCIANM72NM
24
monthly Crisis
Credit Card Interest Rate — All Accounts Assessed Interest
TERMCBCCALLNS
7
quarterly Crisis
Housing Affordability Composite
HOUSING_AFFORD_COMPOSITE
—
monthly

Credit Stress 5 indicators

Credit Card Delinquency Rate — All Commercial Banks
DRCCLACBS
67
quarterly Mixed
Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate — All Commercial Banks
DRCLACBS
69
quarterly Mixed
Credit Card Charge-Off Rate — All Commercial Banks
CORCCACBS
51
quarterly Weakening
NY Fed HHDC — Credit Card Transition to Serious Delinquency (90+)
NYFED_HHDC_CC_SERIOUS_DELINQ
—
quarterly
SLOOS — Net % Banks Tightening Consumer Credit Card Standards
DRTSCLCC
58
quarterly Mixed

Balance Sheet 4 indicators

Personal Saving Rate
PSAVERT
16
monthly Crisis
Real Disposable Personal Income (YoY)
DSPIC96
—
monthly
Household Debt Service Ratio
TDSP
73
quarterly Healthy
Household Net Worth / Disposable Income Ratio
BOGZ1FL192090005Q
98
quarterly Very Strong

Inflation 4 indicators

Headline CPI (YoY)
CPIAUCSL
58
monthly proximity 2% Mixed
Core CPI — ex Food and Energy (YoY)
CPILFESL
45
monthly proximity 2% Weakening
CPI Shelter (YoY)
CUSR0000SAH1
60
monthly Mixed
EIA U.S. Regular Retail Gasoline Price (Weekly Avg)
EIA_GAS_US_REGULAR
—
weekly

Labor & Income 5 indicators

Unemployment Rate (U-3)
UNRATE
76
monthly Healthy
Nonfarm Payrolls — 3-Month Avg Change
PAYEMS
21
monthly Crisis
Initial Jobless Claims — 4-Week Average
IC4WSA
98
weekly Very Strong
Continued Claims
CCSA
90
weekly Very Strong
Real Average Hourly Earnings (YoY)
CES0500000013
—
monthly

Sentiment 3 indicators

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index
UMCSENT
2
monthly Crisis
OECD Consumer Confidence Indicator (Conference Board Proxy)
CSCICP03USM665S
17
monthly Crisis
NY Fed SCE — Probability of Missing a Minimum Debt Payment
NYFED_SCE_MISS_PAYMENT
—
monthly

Spending & Demand 4 indicators

Real PCE — 3-Month Annualized Growth Rate
PCEC96
44
monthly Weakening
Advance Real Retail & Food Services Sales (YoY)
RRSFS
27
monthly Stressed
TSA Daily Checkpoint Throughput vs. 2019 (7-Day Avg)
TSA_THROUGHPUT_VS2019
—
daily
Real PCE — Food Services & Accommodations (YoY)
DFXARC1Q027SBEA
—
monthly